Before Any Violence: Serbia / Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (1999 – 2001)

Background
Slobodan Milosevic oversaw the disintegration of the social, political and economic infrastructure of Serbia, the dissolution of Yugoslavia and a particularly brutal war within the country. The NATO bombing of Serbia between March and June 1999 in response to the Serbian attack on Kosovo made matters worse; causing massive damage to the Serbian infrastructure (estimated at over 4 billion dollars) and resulting in the Serbians feeling isolated and victimized. Milosovic had increasing control of all forms of media within Serbia and used it to tell Serbians that the NATO bombing meant that the West was determined to destroy the Serbian people.

The opposition leaders were seen by the West as weak and were largely ignored.

Involvement
Just after the NATO bombings, in July 1999, the East West Institute and the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs organised a conference in Bratislava, Slovakia, entitled ‘The Future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in the context of post war reconstruction’. The East West Institute was a widely respected American organization founded in 1981 as a think tank on security issues. Since the collapse of Communism it had focused on research, networking, and low-key conferences to help with the development of democracy and free enterprise in the central and eastern Europe and in Russia. Acting as a bridge between the east and west it worked to reduce the risk of armed conflict.

The conference brought together pro-democracy forces from FRY with key figures from the international community (EU, Council of Europe, etc.). Some participants felt that a civil war was pending.

It was realized that removal of the current leadership would have to be accompanied by addressing the fragmentary nature of the opposition. Two important initiatives were launched; the creation of a ‘Community for Change’ and the setting up of a ‘Task Force’ to assist in its formation. The ‘Community for Change’ was a consortium of pro-democracy forces which would engage the Serbian population and the international community in the development of a common vision for the country and an action plan

The East West Institute served as the secretariat for the Task Force. There was a gradual process of coalition building. Milosovic changed the constitution on July 6th so that the President of FRY would be elected by a popular vote and an early Presidential election was decreed. The opposition parties grouped together to form the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS).

Outcome
The election resulted in a clear victory for Kostunica’s DOS Coalition.

Milosovic tried to have the election annulled and a wave of non-violent protests spread throughout the country. He was forced to admit defeat. Many of the Task Force members became Members of Parliament.

It is difficult to know to what extent the Bratislava Process contributed to the overthrow of Milosovic but members of the Task Force attested to the importance of the initiative.