I’d like to thank Diana and the Ministry for Peace for organising this meeting. With all the rhetoric and excited comments by all sides, discussions and meetings such as this are very important in keeping things controlled and in perspective.

Now, I believe we are here not because the concern is for nuclear proliferation because if that were the case UK and US wouldn’t be contemplating the increase of their arsenal and Pakistan, India and Israel would be forced to ratify the NPT; the NPT itself would also be improved and amended to reflect the reality of today’s world.

I believe we are here because in a post 9/11, 7/7 world the fear of state sponsored terrorism is ever growing and the fear that an irresponsible regime recognised as sponsor of international terrorism should have its finger on the button or access to this technology for terrorist activities.

Therefore if the problem is not nuclear proliferation the problem must be the Islamic regime its nature, its actions and its intentions.

Trying to contain the present situation by only dealing with uranium enrichment and how the Islamic Republic should be forced to produce a document is only a short term solution and delaying the inevitable explosion that I will discuss. There needs to be a more farsighted policy and action plan.

Without getting into the arguments of whether globalisation is good or bad the reality is that nowadays the world is a much smaller place and we are all dependant on each other and we have responsibility for providing a safe future for our children. The responsibility of governments must be greater than economic gain and national interest.

The solution that I would like to discuss here is a holistic one. One that in the short term would deal with the present day problem according to international law and in the long term support the aspirations of the Iranian people for democracy, freedom and justice.

I believe that until democracy is established and a trustworthy government is in place that Iranians and the international community can have confidence in and trust situations such as the one we find ourselves in will only be repeated and the threat would not be removed.

I’d like to talk a little about where we are now.

To do so first I would like to introduce the Islamic Republic to you.

The head of the state is Ayatollah Khamenei, the Vali Faghih or the Absolute Supreme Leader; meaning that until the missing twelfth Shia Imam, THE MAHDI, returns as the saviour, the messiah if you like, the ‘Vali Faghih’ is his rightful and just representative on earth. A sort of divine legitimacy for the Islamic Republic.

Based on Article 4 of the Islamic Constitution “All civil, penal financial, economic, administrative, cultural, military, political, and other laws and regulations must be based on Islamic criteria. This principle applies absolutely and generally to all articles of the Constitution as well as to all other laws and regulations, and the religious jurists of the Guardian Council are judges in this matter.

The Islamic Republic’s governance structure has a circular nature with the Absolute Supreme leader as its centre.

There are various Council’s the protect this notion of Absolute Velayat Faghih

The Guardian Council, the Exigency Council, the Experts Council, the National Security Council

Also there are three clear divisions of power, the Executive Power, the Legislative Power and the Judicial Power.

The Vali Faghih appoints the head of the Judicial Power who in turn appoints six of the twelve members of the Guardian Council, the other six members are directly appointed by the Supreme Leader himself. If you remember I mentioned that the Guardian Council’s job is to interpret the Islamic law and supervise the adherence of legislature to this interpretation.

Their other duty is to vet the candidates standing for elected office for their moral and Islamic suitability and their loyalty to the regime, be it local council elections, parliamentary elections the council of experts elections or presidential elections.

The Parliament or the Majlis has no authority without the Guardian Council and every bill must be passed by the Guardian Council before it becomes law. For example when the so called pro reform sixth parliament passed bill in 2002 that would enable Iran to ratify the International Convention against Torture the Guardian Council rejected it saying it would limit the judges ability to determine guilt based on confession.

Lack of Islamic compatibility was the excuse given by the Guardian Council when they rejected the ratification of the Convention for Elimination of discrimination against women. Interestingly Islamic states such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have ratified this convention.

So the Guardian Council selects who stands for parliament, for the presidency or the Council of Experts. The Council of Experts are supposed to oversee the actions of the Supreme leader. But of course the supreme leader has appointed those who have selected the members of the council of experts and there is an overlap of the membership of the Council of experts, The Exigency Council and the Guardian Council.

The people as the electorate are but pawns in this game. Of course by holding elections a dictatorship does not become democratic. And as we have experienced with the eight years of a supposedly pro-reform president Khatami elections were not an instrument of significant political change.

But who are the people and how do they live?

I’d like to show a few images of Iran that may surprise you. Iran is not made up of chest beating bearded fanatics although there is a minority of that. But the main body of the population are normal people with normal worries and needs.

Average age of an Iranian is placed at 24. Over half of the population is under twenty years of age. Seventy percent of the population is below the age of thirty. They need education, employment, housing, healthcare and so on but they are not getting it.

Having seen the photos I’d like to tell you a little about the conditions under which this young population lives:

• Iran’s economy is oil dependant and most activity is controlled by the State. The State is also the main employer. Despite an estimated 40 billion dollar foreign exchange reserve Iran’s economy is plagued by inefficiency and disorder with a rising inflation (30%)1 and high unemployment (25-30%)2.
• Despite rising oil prices (over $65 per barrel at present) and an income of over seven hundred billion dollars over the last twenty seven years, according to a spokesperson at the Islamic Republic’s State Welfare Organisation (Behzisty) over seven million people sleep hungry at night. This is aside from those who live below level one and two poverty lines.
• The crude oil income per capita has fallen from $672 in 1978 to $347 in 2002 (taking inflation into account this figure is comparable to $160, one quarter of its value in 1978)3. In addition, a comparison with Iran’s neighbouring states demonstrates that despite Iran being the world’s fourth exporter of crude oil and second in natural gas its annual household income is noticeably lower. Iran’s annual household income is calculated at $23004 at the end of 20045. To manage the oil revenue well thus allowing the development of Iran’s other natural resources an efficient, accountable and democratic governance structure is required.
• Iran ranks 88 out of 158 countries on the Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI) with a CPI score of 2.9 (a scale of 0 – 10 with 0 being the most corrupt). In real terms in Iran bribery is another income supplement. Corruption at every level is an accepted part of every day life - from gifting the postman to make sure one’s mail is delivered to major corruption on the international level in the oil and its related industries. It is most apparent within the disciplinary and judicial system.
• In a national survey carried out by the Islamic Culture and Guidance Ministry in 2004, 80.6% of those questioned believed that without bribery and connections they could not progress in society and their rights would be violated.6 Out of those questioned only 23% believed that their education and expertise played a role in securing employment.
• While the Statistics Centre of Iran puts unemployment at 12.3% the unemployment figures for the 15 – 29 year old age group is 34% and in effect one million people are added to these figures annually. With the most optimistic outlook only 400 thousand jobs can be created. in over all estimations there are about five million people unemployed the majority of whom are young people7.
• So the most crucial short and medium term problem facing the future of Iran is the ever increasing numbers of the unemployed. Future long term problems include lack of planning and provisions for pension and welfare.
• An increasing drug addiction rate is another one of growing problems facing the Iranian society today.
• Its prevalence is at such a high level that it prompted an official to admit that eight million people8 are directly involved with drugs either as users or caught up in the smuggling and distribution rings.
• These figures include first level family members but another official9 predicted that in the next eighteen years Iran will have over seventeen million addicts.10
• Despite traditional values of the society and the strict religious laws of the Islamic Republic prostitution is an irrefutable fact in every day life of Iranians. It has become a reluctantly accepted source of income of the increasing poor. Girls as young as eleven have been reported to prostitute themselves11.
• On the other hand unfortunately the sale of Iranian girls into prostitution rings in the Persian Gulf region, Pakistan and Far East and setting up safe houses for the increasing number of runaway teenage girls as cover have proved a lucrative business for some high ranking officials and clerics.
• Based on various state figures up to one and a half million children live on the streets. Some have families but instead of gaining an education they work to help supplement the family income.
• Now an aspect of the problems faced by this young generation is something that affects us here and that is asylum.
• Iran is losing its most curious, adventurous and enterprising citizens with a hunger for learning, of being productive and contributing to the society they live in, to the rest of the world.
• Fleeing persecution, prejudice and discrimination, threats of addiction, better education and employment opportunities are all among the many reasons most Iranians have for wanting to leave Iran legally or illegally. Iranians have remained in the top ten nationalities seeking asylum since 1999. Despite an overall fall of 32% in asylum applications in the UK in 2004, applications from Iranian nationals rose from 2,875 to 3,455. This trend continued in 2005 and Iran has remained at the top of the list. Desperate parents risk sending minors even young girls on their own to a strange foreign land rather than risk their uncertain future in Iran. Culturally this is a major and difficult decision for Iranian parents.
• Around four million Iranians live outside Iran’s borders. They have left Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. They are vibrant, educated and contributing members of their host communities.
• The situation for dissidents or critics of the regime has been well documented by numerous human rights reports but just to keep it in perspective if I were giving this talk in Iran I could be imprisoned up to ten years for my membership in a group that points out the problems of the Islamic Republic and because I have criticised the Islamic divine legitimacy of the regime I could be prosecuted on apostasy charges for which the sentence is death.
• In itself human rights abuses and violations are well recognised and documented so I will not repeat them suffice to say that The human and civil rights of the Iranian people have been traded as commodities in trade agreements under the constructive yet critical engagement with the Islamic Republic and the abuse goes on with impunity.

When the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions were exposed three years ago, the West spearheaded by the EU3, made the same mistake that President Carter made during the hostage crisis of negotiating with the Islamic Republic’s President despite being aware that the promises and assurances of Khatami and his government carried little or no weight with the real decision makers in Iran.

The end result of negotiating with the Khatami government is the international frustration and anger at the wasted time and energy expressed by those involved in the process during the last few weeks.

Let us not make the mistake of thinking that Ahmadinejad is the united voice of the regime he is not. The power lay and infighting beyond the patience of this meeting

The Islamic Republic is not afraid of being referred to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) or having sanctions imposed. In fact any such action feeds their purpose. It will allay internal dissent in the face of an external threat. It would also unite domestic support against the West demonising the threat from abroad.

The Islamic Republic has been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism since 19 January 1984 by the US State department. According its last report published in June 2004 the Islamic Republic funds, trains and sponsors international terrorist organisations in the Middle East and their wider network globally and it is the most active state sponsor of terrorism.

Within the region the West – US and UK in particular - are not considered as friends. They are recognised as occupiers / oppressors and the general Arab/Moslem sentiment is against them. In addition the rulers in the region have changed and new faces are in power. Sharon is no longer in Israel and HAMAS has won the Palestinian elections. With ideological and financial enticement from the Islamic Republic threats against the Islamic Republic could rally together the angry forces within the region and as far a field as the Islamic groups in the Far East. Their reactions would not be limited to the region and the coalition forces present in Afghanistan and Iraq. Let us not forget that based on this kind of religious solidarity the first Pakistani nuclear bomb was named ‘the Islamic Nuclear Bomb’.

Islamic Republic feels reassured that its influence on the world oil supplies and prices gives it adequate protection to ward off any threats of sanctions.

However since the problem is the Islamic Republic itself incidents such as today’s crisis are likely to happen over and over again. Therefore, without dealing with the root cause of the problems, there are long term implications as well since Iran sits on ten percent of the world’s natural gas reserve, second only to Russia, and any conflict would also jeopardize the transport of oil through the straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

To combat the twenty five years old US trade embargo the Islamic Republic has looked to other suppliers fostering close trade relationships with India, Japan, China and Russia. It has also worked hard at becoming self sufficient. China and India, major trading partners depend on Iran for much of their energy. China and Russia are permanent members of the UNSC and Islamic Republic counts on their support during any crisis.

Economic Sanctions such as the ones already in place against Iran have only benefited the theocratic dictatorship and whenever a disaster happens the sanctions are blamed by the regime eliciting anti west sentiments.

It's unfortunate that a regime can push so hard on its people that some of them are forced to call for a military strike on their country.... but some people in Iran are so tired of the regime that they would even welcome military attacks.

Iranian people wish to return to their responsible and rightful place in the world community. Therefore the question here is the future of Iran and not the future of the Islamic Republic. Iranian people want to engage on an equal level with the rest of the world. The farsighted solution is the support of Iranian people’s move towards democracy.

The answer to the present predicament in our opinion is a holistic one; one that looks beyond the present crisis and takes a responsible long term view.

Bringing about democracy and establishing civil society is the only real solution to the present day threats and Iran’s long term future.

Referring the Islamic Republic to the UNSC is part of the international procedure that must be pursued. However:

Due its escalating domestic problems the Islamic regime is craving a strong reaction and threats of sanctions as a survival tool;

Any threat of military strike against Iran must be unequivocally removed;

Economic sanctions would only worsen the already dismal economic situation of the Iranian people and could demonise the West.

ACI recommends that:

the international community supports the Iranian People: engages trade unions, NGOs, advocates of democracy and human rights activists and capacity building for non violent move towards democracy; any on going discussions concerning future trade and investment agreements with the Islamic Republic is put on hold despite its obvious financial disadvantages for the West; diplomatic levels are down graded;

enforcing international warrants against the Islamic regime’s officials such as those issued by the German Courts in April 1997; Insisting on application of justice and observance of human rights through international monitoring

It is only then that Iran will no longer pose a threat to world peace and stability and the people of Iran can return to the world community as a responsible member and assume their rightful place.

Thank you.

1 FCO Iran Country Profile 18 October 2005
2 Ibid
3 Page 164 - The Twenty Five Assessment of the Islamic Republic 1356-1381 (1978 – 2002) published 2004 Public Relations Directorate of the State Management and Planning Organisation.
4 2004 World Bank figures based on 68 million population; however other projections put Iran’s population over 70 million people consequently the $2300 figure would be lower.
5 UAE and Qatar between $23000 to $27000; Kuwait $17,970; Israel $17,380; Bahrain $12,410; Saudi Arabia $10,420; Oman $7890, Lebanon $4980;
6 Published in Baztab internet site 18.07.2004. Baztab belongs to Mohsen Rezaie the Chairman of the Expediency Council headed by Rafsanjani.
7 Figures published in Eqtesad Iran (Iran Economist) Year Seven Issue 78 based on special report on unemployment figures published by The State Statistics Centre October 2003
8 Islamic Student News Agency (ISNA) 2 October 2004 at interview with Deputy Head of Prevention and Cultural affairs of Tehran Province.
9 Dr Mohamamd Binazadeh – Expert Drug Prevention Office of State Welfare Organisation – Published 24 February 2004 in Etemaad daily newspaper, Iran.
10 It must be noted that there is a lack of consensus on figures published in Iran. The figures change to suit the issuing department’s policies.
11 BBC Newsnight special report – Sue Lloyd Roberts 10 December 2002